Tesla's first week of June 2024 in China kicked off with an impressive but perplexing figure—12,000 new vehicle registrations. While this might seem like a significant achievement at first glance, it actually marks a 21% dip from the preceding week's 15,200 units. This figure, although lower, still indicates robust activity for Tesla in the Chinese market. Dive into the factors behind these numbers, and it’s clear there’s more to the story.
A Tracker's Perspective
Tesla, like many other automakers, doesn’t typically disclose weekly registration numbers. This gap is filled by industry analysts who keep a keen eye on vehicle insurance registrations as a proxy to gauge the company's performance. Remarkably, Chinese EV giant Li Auto releases its new vehicle registration numbers every week, giving a glimpse into the broader EV market.
According to Li Auto’s latest update, Tesla China tallied 12,000 insured units in the week concluding June 9, 2024. As of this date, Tesla's cumulative new vehicle registrations for the year stand at approximately 236,000 units. While it’s a slight drop compared to the 248,000 units recorded during the same period last year, it’s important to consider the market dynamics at play.
— 大趙 (@zhongwen2005) June 12, 2024
The Dragon Boat Festival Effect
The timing of Tesla China's registration figures coincided with the Dragon Boat Festival, a public holiday in China celebrated from June 8-10. Consequently, a standard seven-day business week was effectively a five-day week, which could explain the abrupt 21% dip. When accounting for this shortened workweek, the drop doesn’t seem as alarming.
— Tsla Chan (@Tslachan) June 12, 2024
It's a familiar drill; seasonal and cultural events often cause fluctuations in sales and registration figures. Companies like Tesla are no strangers to managing these ebbs and flows, and their long-term performance is what ultimately counts.
May 2024: A Snapshot
In May 2024, Tesla reported selling 55,215 vehicles in the Chinese domestic market. This comprised 45,359 Model Y crossovers and 27,214 Model 3 sedans. These impressive sales figures contributed to Tesla’s 6.87% share of China’s New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sector and an 11.15% share of the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) market. From January to May 2024, Tesla China's wholesale figures, which include domestic sales and exports, were estimated at 355,616 units.
Keep an Eye on Q2
While the first week of June holds its own set of highs and lows, it’s crucial to take a broader view to fully understand Tesla China’s performance. The second quarter of 2024 is poised to be a pivotal period, especially given the growth metrics. Year-to-date (YTD) figures show a marginal dip of 4.4% compared to the same period last year. However, the quarterly figures indicate a noteworthy increase of 13.6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and a 14.1% dip compared to the last quarter of 2023, which was Tesla’s most successful quarter to date.
— Roland Pircher (@piloly) June 12, 2024For the week of June 3-9, China reported 12k insurance registrations for Tesla. 🇨🇳
The quarter is +13.6% QoQ and -14.1% vs. 23Q4 the best quarter after 10 weeks. YTD is at -4.4% YoY. pic.twitter.com/L7pV4oImgm
The next few weeks will be telling. With the first week of June behind us, Tesla China will aim to regain any lost momentum and close Q2 2024 on a high note. Only then will we see if these numbers signify a momentary blip or a longer-term trend.
Engage with us as we keep an eye on Tesla China’s burgeoning market presence. For queries or news tips, feel free to reach out to simon@teslarati.com.
Tesla China's Registration Rollercoaster: 12K Signups in Just a Week
