Shocking Power Shift: Renewables Set to Outpace Natural Gas in Just 3 Years
Imagine a future where the lights in your home are powered not by fossil fuels but by the sun and wind. According to the latest data from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), this future could be upon us sooner than you think. In a groundbreaking trend, renewable energy sources like solar and wind are on the verge of surpassing natural gas in generating capacity within the next three years. Let’s dive into the numbers and what they mean for the future of energy in the United States.
The Rise of Solar
March 2024 was a landmark month for solar energy, accounting for nearly 99.7% of the new generating capacity added to the US grid. This impressive figure marks the seventh consecutive month where solar outshined every other energy source. According to FERC’s latest report, solar energy alone contributed 2,833 megawatts (MW) of the total new capacity in March 2024. In comparison, other energy sources like biomass, oil, hydropower, and even natural gas contributed a mere fraction. For the first quarter of 2024 alone, solar accounted for 86.79% of new generating capacity, a clear testament to its growing dominance.
A Dominant Force
What’s fascinating is that solar energy has been the leading source of new generating capacity from September 2023 to March 2024. During the first quarter of this year, new solar capacity more than doubled compared to the same period last year. This consistent growth aligns with multiple forecasts suggesting that 2024 will be a record-breaking year for solar energy. It's not just speculation either; FERC’s data supports these predictions.
Utility-Scale Solar Takes the Lead
The latest capacity additions have elevated solar’s share to 8.25% of the total installed utility-scale generating capacity in the US. This achievement allows solar to surpass hydropower, which stands at 7.88%. Wind power, another significant player, accounts for 11.77%. Combined, solar and wind now make up more than 20% of the installed utility-scale generating capacity. When you factor in other renewables like biomass and geothermal, renewables collectively command nearly 30% of the US utility-scale generating capacity.
For context, a year ago, solar was at 6.67%, wind at 11.51%, and hydropower at 7.97%. The total share of renewables was 27.67%. This rapid growth has allowed solar to climb into fourth place, trailing behind natural gas, coal, and wind. It has even overtaken nuclear power, which holds an 8.01% share.
Looking to the Future
FERC projects that between April 2024 and March 2027, net “high probability” additions of solar will total a staggering 89,030 MW. This figure is more than 3.5 times the forecasted additions for wind, the second-fastest growing resource. Additional contributions are expected from hydropower, geothermal, and biomass. Interestingly, while renewables are on the rise, traditional sources like coal, natural gas, and oil are projected to decrease in capacity.
If these projections hold, by April 2027, solar will make up nearly one-seventh of the installed utility-scale generating capacity in the US. This would put solar ahead of both coal and wind, and nearly double the capacity of nuclear power and hydropower. Collectively, renewables could account for 35.73% of the total installed utility-scale generating capacity, coming close to natural gas, which is projected to hold 40.72%.
A Conservative Estimate?
Historical data suggests that FERC’s projections might even be conservative. For example, between April 2021 and March 2024, actual solar additions were nearly 20% higher than FERC’s estimates. Similarly, wind capacity additions exceeded forecasts by almost 23%. Beyond utility-scale projects, small-scale solar is also gaining ground. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), small-scale solar could account for nearly a third of US solar electricity generation.
Including both distributed and utility-scale solar, the total capacity might be closer to 12% and could potentially exceed 20% within three years. This scenario would bring the total renewable generating capacity close to or even surpassing that of natural gas within this timeframe.
Conclusion
The rise of renewable energy is not just a trend; it's a seismic shift in the energy landscape of the United States. As solar and wind continue to grow at an unprecedented rate, we are edging closer to a future where renewables will be the dominant source of electricity. This shift promises not only to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels but also to pave the way for a more sustainable and resilient energy system.