Why the Porsche Cayman is Still the Smartest Investment in 2024

Depreciation is one of the most significant costs when owning a sports car, turning many dreams into financial nightmares due to steep value drops. However, some models defy this trend, and the Porsche Cayman is one of them. But even this resilient sports car is showing some early signs of price adjustment in the current market. In this detailed market update, we explore recent price trends for the Cayman and how its depreciation rates stack up against other vehicles.

Examining the 718s

Diving straight into the data, we begin with the 718s. Price trends for the base, S, and GTS models have been gradually declining since the pandemic peak in mid-2022, but the decline has been modest. The base and S models, which constitute the largest market segment, show slight stabilization in 2023. Over the past year, base models depreciated by 5.2%, S models by 5%, and GTS models by 5.7%. In dollar terms, this translates to drops of $2.7k, $3.6k, and $4.7k, respectively. These figures exclude inflation adjustment.

Interestingly, Porsche announced a significant price hike for the 2024 718s, which might explain why prices have remained relatively strong. However, the data doesn't show a price increase for newer models with mileage between 0 and 7000 miles.

Trends for the 981s

Next, we examine the 981 models, including the base, S, and GTS. Similar to the 718s, price trends for these models flatten out in 2023. For the 981 base, depreciation was 4.8%, 4.1% for the S, and a smaller positive 1.8% for the GTS. It's worth noting that the GTS market consists of a small number of cars, making this figure less reliable than the 4.1% seen in the S market, which is statistically confirmed.

The 987 segment is even trickier due to the low supply in several subsegments. Analyzing the considerable .1 and .2 markets, the .1 models saw a price drop of 3.2% last year, while the .1 base models experienced a minimal 0.1% change. These changes aren't statistically confirmed but provide a baseline for the .2 market, which should be interpreted cautiously.

The Six-Cylinder Stars: GT4 and GTS

The last set includes the 4.0 GTS, GT4 RS, and GT4 models. All saw corrections in the latter half of 2022, but GT4 models managed a partial recovery, whereas 4.0 GTSs remained flat. The 718 GT4, 981 GT4, and 4.0 GTS experienced depreciation rates of 1.8%, 0.3%, and 3.2%, respectively. None of these changes are statistically confirmed. From a depreciation viewpoint, the GT4 remains the stellar choice.

GT4 RS models, with an MSRP starting at $161k, can easily tip over $200k with added options. Despite a median price of $243k, the market for these models shows a reduction in price premiums. Compared to last year, prices are down by 16.2%, or $47k. Slower sales within three months result in less aggressive discounting compared to a year ago, indicating a flattening trend and a slower market adjustment.

The Comprehensive View

Summing up, the average depreciation across all discussed Cayman models was 3.8%, dropping to 2.7% without the GT4 RSs. While most cars depreciated between 3.5% and 5.7%, a respectable range, GT4 models exhibited the least depreciation. The 981 GTS also performed well, though with considerable uncertainty.

Our February market update indicated potential weakening based on increased carried-over inventory, as cars sold slower than before. This predicted a potential acceleration in depreciation rates. Reviewing depreciation from February to May 2024, most Cayman segments saw increased rates, averaging 2.7%, up from 1.0% in February, with exceptions noted for the GT4 RS, 987 base, and 981 GTS. Only the rate increase for the 718 market is statistically significant, indicating a softer segment compared to others.

The Final Takeaway

In conclusion, the Porsche Cayman market, while showing slight softness, remains robust compared to the overall car market. For savvy buyers concerned about depreciation, the Cayman stands out as a reliable investment. With values decreasing by an average of 2.7%, excluding the GT4 RS, and certain models like the GT4 bucking the trend, it's clear the Cayman is still among the smartest purchases you can make in the sports car world. However, while short-term trends can be predicted with some confidence, long-term forecasts remain uncertain without more robust, evidence-based models.